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What if Brady DIDN’T play? The Vegas odds would be . . .


The only sports bettor on Forbes’ recent list of Gambling Gurus, RJ Bell of is providing eye-popping Super Bowl information found nowhere else!

Las Vegas, Nevada (1/22/08) – The sports world is abuzz with talk of QB Tom Brady, his girlfriend supermodel Gisele Bundchen, and a walking boot recently spotted on his right foot. The natural question to ask is what effect would the absence of Tom Brady have on the New England Patriots?

After talking to a number of Vegas bookmakers and pro bettors, the consensus opinion is that the point spread would be adjusted to approximately -7 if Tom Brady was certain to miss Super Bowl XLII. New England is currently a 12 point favorite, which means the injury adjustment to the pointspread would be a full 5 points!

This would be an unusually large adjustment, but the experts I spoke with sited three main factors: 1) Tom Brady is playing better than any quarterback in history. 2) His back-up, Matt Cassel, has had extremely limited experience. 3) The majority of money wagered on the Super Bowl comes from causal fans – and casual fans would almost certainly overreact to Brady’s absence and heavily back the underdog NY Giants.

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RJ Bell, president of, has been featured on CBS News with Katie Couric, ABC News with Charles Gibson, Nightline, Sportscenter, Outside the Lines (ESPN), First Take (ESPN2),, ESPN National Radio, Yahoo,, – and in Wall Street Journal, Associated Press, LA Times,, Maxim, and Forbes.


 Tom Brady
 walking boot injury
 New England Patriots
 New York Giants
 point spread odds

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