BBVA Research: COP31 in Türkiye Must Turn Climate Commitments into Concrete, Verifiable Action

BBVA Research believes that COP31, to be held in Antalya, Türkiye, this coming November, must turn climate commitments into concrete, verifiable action. The bank’s research unit notes that, while climate governance already has a framework of commitments and initiatives in place, a gap remains between the stated goals and their implementation . In a recent climate report, it also cites financing as one of the factors that will determine progress toward the measures agreed upon.

Over the past three decades, the Conferences of the Parties (COPs) have built the international framework for tackling climate change. The 2015 Paris Agreement established a model based on nationally determined contributions (NDCs), along with mechanisms relating to transparency, financing, adaptation, and carbon markets.

However, the BBVA Research report, COP31: From Commitments to Credible Delivery, notes that the main challenge now is to turn those commitments into measures that can be quantified, financed, and monitored. “COP31 should mark a shift from commitments to implementation. The challenge is not to add new initiatives, but to ensure that goals are backed by concrete measures, financing, clearly identified parties responsible for delivery, and mechanisms for assessing results,” says Julián Cubero, Lead Economist for Climate Change at BBVA Research.

According to United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) data set out in the report, projected warming under current policies has fallen from around 3.7°C in 2015 to approximately 2.8°C in 2025. Full implementation of the NDCs would reduce that estimate to around 2.3–2.5°C. Yet both trajectories remain above the Paris Agreement’s temperature goals.

BBVA Research identifies two challenges behind this gap. First, there is an implementation gap between countries’ commitments and the policies they put in place. Second, an ambition gap persists between those commitments and the goals enshrined in the Paris Agreement.

According to the analysis, COP31 should be judged less by the number of initiatives announced and more by its ability to translate agreements into policies, projects, financing, and monitoring mechanisms.

Among the initiatives analyzed is the Climate Implementation Bridge, designed to connect NDCs and National Adaptation Plans (NAPs) with economic policy, investable projects, and sources of financing, with a particular focus on developing economies.

The report also addresses several targets proposed in connection with COP31. These include increasing electricity’s share of final energy demand from just over 20% today to 35% by 2035, halving growth in global waste by that year, reducing the energy intensity of buildings by at least 25%, and increasing the use of circular materials in industry to at least 15%.

BBVA Research warns that progress on electrification will depend on ensuring that new electricity demand is increasingly met by low-carbon generation and supported by grids, storage and policies that enable fossil fuel consumption to be replaced.

The report flags financing as one of the gaps between commitments and implementation. Climate finance provided and mobilized by developed countries for developing economies increased from around $50 billion in 2013 to more than $130 billion in 2023 and 2024, according to Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) data included in the analysis.

The New Collective Quantified Goal on Climate Finance (NCQG), agreed at COP29, sets a target of at least $300 billion annually by 2035, with developed countries taking the lead, as part of a broader goal of mobilizing at least $1.3 trillion a year in public and private financing for developing countries.

The analysis emphasizes that climate summits must go beyond formal agreements among governments and become platforms that act as catalysts for actual implementation. To this end, BBVA Research underscores the role of a complementary ecosystem involving coalitions of countries, cities, companies and financial institutions, capable of accelerating the climate transition where multilateral negotiations are slower. Through sectoral supply-and-demand schemes, such as the Breakthrough Agenda or the First Movers Coalition, and public-private financing alliances like Just Energy Transition Partnerships (JETPs), COPs currently serve as strategic spaces strategic spaces for organizing viable projects for investment, creating cleantech markets and coordinating key actors.

In this regard, ahead of COP31 in Antalya, BBVA Research stresses that success should not be measured by the volume of commitments announced, but by strict execution discipline. Instruments such as the Climate Implementation Bridge or the Global Implementation Accelerator will only add value if they ensure that every initiative follows the rigorous implementation criteria set out in the report. Ultimately, the effectiveness of the Türkiye summit will be determined by both progress in formal negotiations and the global community’s ability to mobilize policies and investments that create tangible, irreversible changes in the real economy.

BBVA Research cautions that the outcome will depend, among other factors, on the setting of interim milestones, the identification of financing sources and instruments, and the conditions governing access to those resources.

The report proposes a scorecard for determining whether an initiative can translate into results. The analysis considers five criteria: whether it has a quantified target, baseline, and deadline; whether it identifies policies, projects and institutions responsible for implementation; whether it specifies financing sources and mechanisms; whether it establishes public indicators and a reporting frequency; and whether it is consistent with climate goals.

BBVA Research concludes that the success of COP31 will ultimately depend on making meaningful progress in implementing outstanding agreements in areas such as adaptation, mitigation, the just transition and financing. Mechanisms will also need to be put in place to monitor the results.