WWF: 1.5°C overshoot is a call for urgent action

Global temperatures could peak at around 1.8°C above pre-industrial levels under the most optimistic scenario, a new study shows. But, says WWF, the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C goal remains the benchmark for global climate action. Any overshoot beyond 1.5°C must be kept as small and as brief as possible.

The world is already experiencing around 1.4°C of warming, with communities across the globe facing increasingly severe heatwaves, floods, droughts and ecosystem loss. An overshoot occurs when global temperatures temporarily rise above 1.5°C before returning below that level. But overshoot is not a safe zone. The higher temperatures rise, and the longer they remain elevated, the greater the risk of severe and potentially irreversible impacts, including rising sea levels, ecosystem loss, food insecurity and dangerous climate tipping points.

Crossing 1.5°C, however, must not be interpreted as a reason to abandon the goal. It is a warning that governments need to move faster and further to cut emissions, as every fraction of a degree beyond that threshold increases risks for people, nature and economies.

A new UNEP report on limiting the overshoot says the ‘overshoot, peak and decline’ pathway is the best remaining option to help vulnerable nations and communities cope and return below1.5°C.

Manuel Pulgar-Vidal, WWF Global Climate and Energy Lead and COP20 President, said: “The world is dangerously close to crossing the 1.5°C limit. But this is not a reason to surrender; it must be a trigger for action. The longer the world stays above this, the greater the risks for people, nature and economies.

“The political test now is simple: will governments let the world slide into even more dangerous warming, or will they act together to keep any breach of 1.5°C as small and short as possible? That means stronger national climate plans, more finance, faster cuts to pollution, and real support for people already facing the worst impacts of the climate crisis.

“1.5°C is still the world’s legal, moral and scientific guardrail. Going past it, even for a short time, would show a failure to deliver, not a reason to weaken the goal. We must cut emissions, not ambition, and move faster to bring warming back below the threshold.”

Stephanie Roe, WWF’s Global Climate and Energy Lead Scientist, said: “Overshooting 1.5°C is not a cliff edge, but neither is it harmless. Every fraction of a degree of warming increases risks for people and nature, while every fraction avoided reduces harm. What matters now is how far temperatures rise above 1.5°C and how long they stay there.”

“The science shows that lower and shorter overshoot means fewer impacts on ecosystems, communities and economies. Limiting peak warming and returning temperatures to safer levels as quickly as possible can help reduce risks, avoid irreversible losses, and improve resilience for the future.”

Ruth Fuller, WWF-UK’s Chief Climate Adviser, said: “This new report is clear – current policies are pushing us into even more dangerous territory, but there are pathways we can and must take to limit the danger.

“If we overshoot our 1.5ºC climate target, we increase the risk that natural systems will irreversibly change once a tipping point is reached. We have the knowledge, resources and tools to act; we need to urgently phase out fossil fuels, invest in climate finance, scale up renewables, accelerate adaptation, restore ecosystems and end deforestation.”

To respond to science and minimize overshoot, WWF, in its just published Climate and Energy Manifesto 2026, calls on governments to:

• Deliver stronger climate plans and align them with delivery mechanisms to accelerate emissions reductions;
• Deliver climate justice through increasing support for communities already facing the impacts of climate change;
• Treat nature as a foundation to a 1.5 future;
• Accelerate scalable high-impact solutions
• Mobilise and support on-the-ground implementers such as the private sector and subnational governments.

Notes

• The Paris Agreement temperature goal of 1.5°C remains the benchmark for climate action. It is the line the world agreed to uphold because every fraction of a degree above it poses greater danger to people, nature and economies, especially for those least responsible for the climate crisis.
• Studies predict we will exceed 1.5ºC by 2029 to early 2030s.
• Current policies and actions lead to about 3°C of warming by 2100.
• If fully implemented, existing net-zero pledges and national climate plans could reduce warming to ~1.8°C.
• Paris Agreement commitments have already significantly bent the curve down from the ~4°C projected in 2015.
• The central scientific questions are now how close we can stay to 1.5°C and how quickly we can return to below it after overshooting.

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