WWF: World leaders must choose to close the emissions gap for a safer, fairer future

The UN Environment Programme’s Emissions Gap Report 2025 finds that current national climate plans are insufficient to avert a high-risk climate future. 

The report says that, if fully implemented, countries’ plans are predicted to result in a temperature increase of 2.3-2.5°C over the course of the next century. This is slightly lower than the prediction in last year’s report (2.6-2.8°C) but still way above the 1.5°C needed to avert the worst effects of climate change. 

The report finds that the long-term average of global temperature rise will exceed 1.5°C, at least temporarily, most likely within the next decade. With rapid and deep emissions cuts it is still possible to limit the damage by making any overshoot as short and small as possible and to bring temperatures back to 1.5°C or below by the end of the century. 

Holding global warming below 1.5°C limits the most catastrophic and irreversible climate change impacts on species, biodiversity, and people. The report comes as world leaders prepare to meet in Belém on 6-7 November for a summit of heads of state ahead of the main UN COP30 climate conference. They should take this opportunity to send strong political signals to close the emissions gap. 

Manuel Pulgar-Vidal, WWF Global Climate and Energy Lead, said: 

“While some incremental progress is being made, we must do more and do it faster. Climate impacts are accelerating, becoming more frequent and intense, devastating lives and livelihoods. While the outlook is alarming, the 1.5°C limit remains a crucial guardrail to avoiding the most catastrophic impacts.  

“At COP30, the world must come together to work out what is stalling momentum on accelerated climate action. Solutions are readily available to close the gap, drive economic opportunities and conserve the critical ecosystems which maintain a safe environment for us all. A global action plan agreed by leaders at this pivotal COP could be the spark to ignite the momentum we need" 

The UNEP Emissions Gap Report 2025 says that only 60 Parties to the Paris Agreement, covering 63% of greenhouse gas emissions, had submitted or announced new NDCs containing mitigation targets for 2035 by 30 September 2025. Several major G20 economies failed to submit their targets in time so are not included.  With less than a week to go until COP30 gets underway, WWF urges the remaining parties to deliver 1.5°C-aligned national plans without further delay and a global response plan to put the Paris Agreement ambition cycle back on track. 

ENDS