Black Friday Tops Traffic, but December’s Final Days Will Drive the Holiday Spend, Says RetailNext

RetailNext, a global leader in smart store analytics for optimizing retail experiences, today released its 2025 U.S. Holiday Forecast, revealing that while Black Friday will once again reign as the busiest day for store traffic, the biggest spending will come in the final rush before Christmas.

A Thursday Christmas Extends the Shopping Season

With Christmas landing on a Thursday for the first time in a decade, shoppers will have an extra weekday to finish their lists, creating a top-heavy season that peaks between December 20–24. RetailNext predicts those final four days will deliver the highest conversion rates of the year, as procrastinators and deal-seekers drive urgency-driven spending in the last stretch.

Black Friday Still Rules, Even Without a Surge

Black Friday 2025 is expected to see a modest uptick in store visits and will remain the single busiest day of the year, even as overall store traffic runs –3% to –5% lower year-over-year. RetailNext’s data shows that while many consumers will visit stores to compare deals, most will delay purchases until closer to Christmas, when urgency peaks.

Cautious Consumers, Higher Spending per Item

From January through September, average price per item rose +1.8%, while basket sizes declined –0.5%, indicating that consumers are paying more per item but leaving with fewer goods.

In September alone, prices were up +3.7% and basket sizes down –1.4%, signaling selective spending and an emphasis on value. Inflation has cooled to around 3%, but shoppers continue to prioritize categories such as apparel, beauty, and jewelry, while home goods and footwear remain under pressure.

Malls Maintain an Edge

Traditional malls are poised to outperform other shopping formats this holiday season.

From January through September, mall traffic averaged –1.6% year-over-year, compared to sharper declines at outlets (–4.3%) and strip centers (–4.1%). Malls’ consistency suggests consumers still favor enclosed environments for convenience, variety, and comfort.

Outlets Set for a Late-Season Comeback

Despite a sluggish year (with traffic down as much as –7.0% in early 2025) outlets are expected to rebound in November and December. In both 2023 and 2024, outlets saw traffic gains of +4% or more during late-season deal hunts. RetailNext forecasts a similar pattern this year, as discount-driven shoppers flock to outlets for last-minute bargains.

Category Breakdown

• Apparel: The most stable category of 2025, rebounding from early-year declines to hold steady through the summer and fall.
  
  
• Jewelry: Expected to shine as a key gifting category, benefiting from both Black Friday and the final holiday rush.
  
  
• Health & Beauty: Continues to perform consistently as shoppers view beauty as both an affordable luxury and an everyday essential.
  
  
• Footwear: The weakest performer of the year, still trending –7% year-over-year.
  
  
• Home Goods: Struggling category requiring aggressive markdowns to stimulate demand.
  
  

Methodology

7+ million shopping trips were analyzed in data sets across specialty and larger format retail stores in the Continental United States. Data starting March 2020 reflects the updated benchmarking methodology which includes updated weights to reflect the national retail landscape. Periods defined according to the Fiscal 4-5-4 Retail Calendar 2024 and 2025

About RetailNext

RetailNext, the first retail vertical IoT platform to bring e-commerce-style shopper analytics to brick-and-mortar stores, brands, and malls, is a pioneer in optimizing the shopper experience. The platform automatically collects and analyzes shopper behavior data through its centralized SaaS solution, enabling retailers to enhance real-time experiences and drive better outcomes.

Recognized in 2024 in Fast Company’s Most Innovative Companies in the Retail Category, RetailNext is trusted by more than 560 retailers in over 100 countries. The company helps businesses better understand the shopper journey to increase same-store sales, reduce theft, and eliminate unnecessary costs. RetailNext is headquartered in Campbell, California. Learn more at retailnext.net.

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