Aon Forecasts 9.8 percent Average Increase in Global Medical Plan Costs for 2026

Aon plc (NYSE: AON), a leading global professional services firm, forecasts that medical plan costs worldwide will rise by an average of 9.8 percent in 2026, according to its 2026 Global Medical Trend Rates Report  . This marks a return to single-digit global growth rates for the first time since 2023.

The medical trend rate represents the projected annual percentage increase in employer-sponsored medical plan unit costs required to address anticipated price inflation, cost of technology advances, higher plan utilization and rising cost of prescription drugs.

“The 2026 Global Medical Trend Rates Report arrives at a time of economic and geopolitical uncertainty, including global tariffs,” said Kathryn Davis, a global benefits vice president at Aon. “Even as global inflation cools in some markets, health care costs remain under significant pressure. Rising healthcare costs have become a pervasive business challenge, requiring organizations to proactively plan and adopt predictive analytics alongside innovative cost management strategies to stay ahead. These approaches are essential for navigating ongoing volatility and supporting long-term benefit strategy.”

Forecasted Medical Trend Rate from 2025 to 2026

                                                 2025      2026
Global                                      10.0%     9.8%
North America                            8.8%     9.3%
Asia-Pacific                              11.1%    11.3%
Europe                                       8.9%     8.2%
Latin America and Caribbean   10.7%   10.3%
Middle East and Africa              15.5%   15.3%

North America and Asia-Pacific (APAC) are the only regions where Aon projects an increase in medical trend rates, reaching 9.3 percent and 11.3 percent respectively. In contrast, Aon’s report shows that Europe is expected to see the largest decline, with rates dropping from 8.9 percent in 2025 to 8.2 percent in 2026. Despite persistently high costs driven by advanced medical technologies and imported pharmaceuticals, the Latin America and Caribbean region is forecast to experience a lower gross medical trend rate of 10.3 percent — down from last year — due to declines observed in several larger markets. In the Middle East and Africa, Aon anticipates a slight decrease to 15.3 percent, attributed to easing inflation.

Key Medical Conditions Driving Costs in 2026

1. Cardiovascular Disease remains the top medical condition anticipated to influence plan costs in 2026. This trend is consistent across all regions, with more than 20 countries identifying it as the most impactful condition.
2. Cancer/Tumor Growth ranks among the top five cost-driving condition in every region in every region, with 20 countries identifying it as the most impactful. The most commonly diagnosed cancers globally include lung, breast, colorectal and prostate cancers.
3. High Blood Pressure/Hypertension continues to be a leading risk factor for numerous other conditions and is consistently cited as a key driver of medical claims. It was identified as the most impactful condition by 18 countries.

“In addition to macroeconomic global factors, trends in the healthcare space are also contributing to persistently high medical inflation rates compared to historical norms. These include higher utilization rates, the adoption of new advanced technologies and a growing demand for private healthcare services. Additionally, aging populations in Europe, APAC and Latin America are emerging as key drivers of rising medical costs,” Davis added.

Building on these findings, Aon’s global Human Capital insights reveal that employers are increasingly focused on cost containment and management strategies. These include negotiating with insurance carriers, implementing wellbeing initiatives, introducing flexible benefits and increasing employee cost sharing. Among these, wellbeing initiatives remain the most widely adopted measure, reported by 86 percent of countries.

“As organizations navigate rising healthcare costs, mitigation strategies are essential to sustaining workforce wellbeing and business resilience,” said Michael Pedel, head of global benefits at Aon. “By proactively leveraging data and analytics and implementing targeted strategic interventions, employers can better manage their investment, bring to life wellbeing strategies and foster healthier, more engaged teams. This holistic approach enables organizations to achieve long-term sustainability of costs, adapt to evolving employee needs and mitigate risk.”

The analysis was informed by Aon professionals in over 100 Aon locations that broker, administer or advise on employer-sponsored medical plans.

Read Aon’s 2026 Global Medical Trend Rate Report here  .

About Aon

Aon plc (NYSE: AON) exists to shape decisions for the better — to protect and enrich the lives of people around the world. Through actionable analytic insight, globally integrated Risk Capital and Human Capital expertise, and locally relevant solutions, our colleagues provide clients in over 120 countries with the clarity and confidence to make better risk and people decisions that protect and grow their businesses