GLP-1 drugs may reduce mortality by up to 6.4% in the US by 2045

•  Swiss Re’s optimistic scenario estimates GLP-1 drugs could lead to a reduction in cumulative all-cause mortality in the US general population of 6.4% over the next 20 years
• For the UK, Swiss Re’s optimistic scenario forecasts a 5.1% cumulative reduction in all-cause mortality in the general population, over the same time horizon
• Achieving the full potential of GLP-1 drugs is strongly dependent on availability, adoption rates, lifestyle and nutritional changes

Paul Murray, Swiss Re’s CEO Life & Health Reinsurance, says: "GLP-1 drugs hold significant promise to help us beat the obesity epidemic. Our research underscores that the full benefit will come from going beyond medication. As insurers, we are in a position to build partnerships, support policy and encourage people to make meaningful lifestyle changes with a focus on prevention. If we get this right, we can strengthen the insurance safety net and contribute to people living longer, healthier lives"

Swiss Re’s research focuses on the US and UK, where obesity rates are high, and where there has been a strong uptake of these drugs. The US has the developed world’s highest obesity rate, at over 40% of adult population. While in the UK, around 30% of adults are obese.

Rising obesity is one factor that has stalled progress in life expectancy across developed markets. In high-income countries, obesity is now linked to 7 of the 10 leading causes of death – including ischemic heart disease, stroke, Alzheimer’s disease and many cancers. By improving baseline risk factors, GLP-1 drugs may contribute to mortality improvements over time, saving millions from premature death.

The report’s optimistic scenario depends on a broad uptake of GLP-1 therapies and people adhering to treatment. Most importantly, it will require people implementing lifestyle changes that support long-term health improvements. Without these changes, studies have shown that weight regain and rebound effects are common, with full weight regain possible within a year after patients discontinue these drugs.

Swiss Re’s modelling also presents more cautious outcomes. In a pessimistic scenario, there is limited uptake in the population, high discontinuation rates especially due to side effects, and widespread weight regain after treatment finishes. Under these conditions, Swiss Re sees much more limited improvements, with US cumulative mortality reductions of just 2.3%, and 1.8% for the UK by 2045.

Natalie Kelly, Head of L&H Global Underwriting, Claims and R&D at Swiss Re, adds: “GLP-1drugs could be the medical innovation we’ve been waiting for to reshape mortality trends. The flow-on effect for underwriting assumptions and claims patterns could therefore be significant. It is essential that insurers keep ahead of the GLP-1 evolution, and maintain a robust, evidence-based approach to assessing the risks"

Modelled impact of GLP-1 drugs on all-cause mortality reductions (fewer premature deaths) in the general population by 2045

Scenario          -                                          Features                                           -      US     -    UK

Optimistic        -    High popularity/engagement                                                  -      6.4%   -   5.1%

                               Minimal side effects, long-term usage plausible

                               Weight loss maintained long-term

                               Lifestyle changes

Baseline          -     Majority use in obese and highly overweight populations.      -     4.0%    -  3.2%

                               Slow uptake, accelerating rapidly before levelling off  

                               Side effects mostly tolerable for short- to medium-term use

                               Variable weight loss "yo-yo-ing" expected

                               Some ongoing lifestyle change expected

Pessimistic     -     Limited use beyond treatment resistant cases                           -    2.3%   -   1.8%

                               Side effects and medical caution limit broader use

                               Weight regain is common after discontinuation

                               Lifestyle changes remain underused

How to order this study:  

The future of metabolic health and weight loss drugs " is available at swissre.com.

Disclaimer  

Although all the information discussed herein was taken from reliable sources, Swiss Re does not accept any responsibility for the accuracy or comprehensiveness of the information given or forward-looking statements made. The information provided and forward-looking statements made are for informational purposes only and in no way constitute or should be taken to reflect Swiss Reʼs position, in particular in relation to any ongoing or future dispute. In no event shall Swiss Re be liable for any financial or consequential loss or damage arising in connection with the use of this information and readers are cautioned not to place undue reliance on forward-looking statements. Swiss Re undertakes no obligation to publicly revise or update any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise.