E-Commerce to Account for 33% of US Retail Sales by 2027, Finds Bloomberg Intelligence

A new Bloomberg Intelligence report finds that e-commerce will grow at a 10% CAGR to $2.55 trillion over the next five years

Almost 60% of the increase may be driven by digitally native retailers

Amazon leads the market, but brick-and-mortar stores are gaining quickly after investing heavily in omnichannel capabilities

Digital commerce has quickly grown from a nascent technology to many customer’s preferred means of shopping, and is set to grow from just 25% of all US retail sales in 2022 to a third of all sales by 2027, according to a new report by Bloomberg Intelligence (BI). The report finds that the adoption of generative AI, and ​​low barriers to entry as well as new sales channels like social, voice, and video commerce could help compound the boost to ecommerce sales driven by the Covid-19 lockdowns in the US with further growth to come.

The research finds that the pandemic accelerated digital adoption by about three years as many consumers were forced to rely on these alternative retail channels due to lockdowns across the country. New growth will come from a mix of established digital natives like Amazon.com, which will continue to lead the gains, and digital offerings from brick-and-mortar giants like Walmart will add around $1 trillion to online sales, with digital natives driving more than 50% of these gains.

This increased demand is driven by outsized gains across most digital and non-digital companies, but this growth also leads to more expected conveniences, like fulfillment, marketplaces, payments and new technologies like generative AI. Amazon is still the clear leader in the gains of this new technology — serving over 160 million US Prime members — but Walmart, Macy’s Kroger, and Best Buy are making strides in the area. Walmart has focused its efforts on ramping up its marketplace with the launch of its own fulfillment service to better compete in the e-commerce space with Amazon.

Poonam Goyal, Senior Retail Analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence and the lead author of the report said: “E-Commerce is poised to continue its explosive growth since the Covid-19 lockdowns and may account for a third of all US retail sales over the next five years. New technologies like generative AI, augmented reality, e-wallets, and cloud-based software that allows smaller merchants to create their own digital stores are making e-commerce more powerful, more useful, and driving rapid digital adoption.”

While digital penetration is strong and will continue to climb at a steady pace according to BI data, it still has significant room to rise across all sectors. Digital sales may be affected most strongly by brick-and-mortar merchants like Walmart, Target, and Costco as they continue to grow their digital efforts. Apparel and electronics digital penetration may reach equilibrium in the coming years but auto continues to be sticky, as most sales and maintenance are still conducted in person. Auto makes up around 22% of total retail, and their resistance to digital penetration may keep US retail sales to reach equilibrium.

The full 2023 E-Commerce report, including a series of notes focused on different retail sectors including apparel, food & beverage and building materials will be available to Bloomberg Terminal subscribers who can access the report via {BI-GO-

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