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Election results drive rebound in consumer confidence: survey


The 2011 Canadian Federal election is now in the books...

TORONTO - The 2011 Canadian Federal election is now in the books, and it looks like Canadians think that the outcome will be very good for their economic prospects economy. The TNS Consumer Confidence Index is up slightly, from 99.3 to 99.7. However, the real story is a sharp 3 point rise in the Expectations Index, from 105.0 to 108.3. This rise follows the sharp drops in both March and April, which were brought on by the Middle East crisis (Tunisia, Egypt, Libya) and sharply rising gas prices. The Expectations Index measures how Canadians believe their economic situation will be in six months’ time.

“Last month, Canadians were in a holding pattern, awaiting the results of the federal election. Now, that the election is over, Canadians’ have given it a thumbs up in terms of their feeling about what it means for the economy” said Norman Baillie-David, Vice President of TNS Canada and Director of the Marketing and Social Research firm’s monthly tracking study. “Canadians have signified their approval of the results in terms of their economic prospects, at least in the next six months” The Present Situation Index, which measures how people feel about the economy right now, was also up slightly, from 98.0 to 98.5. “This slight increase shows that a few people feel better today, but the real hope is that the economy will improve six months down the road” reiterated Mr. Baillie-David.

The Buy Index, which measures the extent to which Canadians’ feel that now is a good time to purchase a “big ticket item”, such as a car or major household appliances, is bucking the trend of this month’s positive results. This Index shows a drop from 95.2 to 92.7, which essentially means it has returned to its level of two months ago, following a “blip”, last month. Consumer Confidence Index tracks Canadians’ attitudes about the economy each month and is part of a global study conducted by TNS in 18 countries. Three indices are produced each month to show how confidence in the economy is changing: Present Situation Index; an Expectations Index; and a Buy Index. The Canadian fieldwork is conducted using the firm’s national bi-weekly telephone omnibus service, TNS Express Telephone. A total of 1,015 nationally representative Canadian adults were interviewed between May 2 and May 6, 2011. For a survey sample of this size, the margin of sampling error is plus or minus 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

About TNS

TNS Canada (formerly known as TNS Canadian Facts) is the Canadian arm of TNS. TNS is the global leader in custom market research delivering actionable insights and research-based business advice to clients around the globe so they can make more effective business decisions. TNS offers comprehensive industry knowledge within the Consumer, Technology, Finance, Automotive and Political & Social sectors supported sectors, by a unique product offering that stretches across the entire range of marketing and business issues, specializing in product development & innovation, brand & communication, stakeholder management, retail & shopper, and qualitative research. Delivering best-in-class service across more than 80 countries, TNS is dedicated to discovering growth opportunities for its clients in an ever-changing world. Through its pioneering and innovative culture, TNS understands the latest marketing challenges and research techniques, being the first to discover and solve new marketing issues for clients.

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About Kantar

Kantar is one of the world’s largest insight, information and consultancy networks. By uniting the diverse talents of its 13 specialist companies, the group aims to become the pre-eminent provider of compelling and inspirational insights for the global business community. Its 28,500 employees work across 100 countries and across the whole spectrum of research and consultancy disciplines, enabling the group to offer clients business insights at each and every point of the consumer cycle. The group’s services are employed by over half of the Fortune Top 500 companies.

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