Final Four Odds from Las Vegas
Who’s really favored to win it all?
Las Vegas, Nevada (March 29, 2009) - Over 12 BILLION dollars is projected to be bet on the 2009 NCAA Basketball Tournament by over 40 million Americans. RJ Bell of Pregame.com tells us what we need to know about the Final Four from a Las Vegas perspective.
In the modern era of the NCAA Tournament we have now had 100 Final Four teams, and it’s compelling to note that only TWO have been seeded worse than #8. This will be the 24th straight year the championship game has no seed worse than #6, and the 21st straight year the champion is seeded no worse than #4.
“The mainstream media pays lip service to Cinderella, but Vegas knows in the end the big boys will be battling to cut down the nets,” said RJ Bell of Pregame.com.
In Saturday’s games, North Carolina is a 7.5-point favorite over Villanova; and U Conn is a 4-point favorite over Michigan State. Entering into the tournament, Villanova was a major long shot to win it all at 40 to 1 and Michigan State was not far behind at 25 to 1.
Here are the true Las Vegas odds (followed by percentage chance) to win the NCAA championship:
North Carolina: 3 to 1 (33%)
U Conn: 3.5 to 1 (30%)
Villanova: 5 to 1 (20%)
Michigan St: 6 to 1 (17%)
The odds stated above have been adjusted through a proprietary Pregame.com formula to remove the commission charged by sportsbooks. Without this adjustment, the odds against a result are understated substantially (often upwards of 50%). For example, an event whose true odds are 10-1 against will be incorrectly stated as 7-1 against (the difference is the commission charged by the sportsbook). As a result, there is an overstatement of the chances of the event happening. The failure of nearly all widely circulated odds to account for this adjustment makes the numbers unreliable and misleading.
For all of RJ Bell’s unique March Madness reporting, visit: http://pregame.com/forums/blogs/rj-bell/default.aspx
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RJ Bell of Pregame.com is the only sports bettor on Forbes’ recent list of Gambling Gurus and has been called “a true insider” by ESPN, “incredibly astute” by AOL and a “point-spread maven” by USA Today. Mr. Bell has been featured on CBS News with Katie Couric, ABC News with Charles Gibson, Nightline, Sportscenter, Outside the Lines (ESPN), First Take (ESPN2), Mike & Mike, Colin Cowherd, Jim Rome, Dan Patrick, ESPN.com, FoxSports.com , Yahoo, CNN.com and in the Wall Street Journal, Associated Press, LA Times, Newsweek.com, Bloomberg, Maxim, and Sports Illustrated. Pregame.com is the largest sports betting news website compliant with US Law.
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