NBA Ref’s Claims NOT Backed by Numbers
Big Bettors 10-0 in Foster’s Games!
Las Vegas, Nevada (11/5/08) – Scott Foster has finally spoken out about his relationship with convicted NBA referee Tim Donaghy. Press reports this past July detailed134 phone calls made by Donaghy to Foster’s cell phone. Foster denies any involvement in basketball gambling, and has been cleared by law enforcement and a league investigation. Facts that make the following statistics, first reported by RJ Bell of Pregame.com, all the more worthy of discussion.
During the 2006-07 time period in question, TEN games refereed by Scott Foster had lopsided enough betting on one team to move the point spread by at least 2 points; those ten teams were UNDEFEATED against Vegas – meaning that the big-money gamblers won a perfect 10 of 10 times on Foster’s games; the odds of that happening randomly are greater than 1000 to 1 against!
”Stats alone should not convict, but when big money bettors win 10 straight times on a theoretically 50/50 event, the odds are over 99.9% against that being just a coincidence,” said RJ Bell of Pregame.com.
Three of the ten games stand out: January 12, 2007 Rockets played at Denver; Houston opened a 1 point favorite and was bet up to minus 3; the Rockets won by 4, holding a 28 to 17 free throw edge over the home team Nuggets. On January 19, 2007 the Kings opened as a 1.5 favorites at Boston; betting on Sacramento moved the line to -4.5. Kings won by 5, shooting 25 free throws, versus only 14 free throws for the home team Celtics. On March 20, 2007 the Nuggets opened as 2.5 point underdogs at New Jersey. Denver was bet so heavily, they closed as 1 point favorites. Denver won by 4, shooting 32 free throws versus only 22 for the home team Nets.
Also of note is the number of games refereed by Foster and Donaghy that resulted in big line moves. 10 of 62 games involving Foster during the period under investigation had line moves of 2 points or more (16% of games). 8 of 73 games refereed by Donaghy during 06-07 had line moves of 2 points or more (11%) of games. Combined, these two referees had big line moves in 13% of their games. A random sample of the first 100 NBA games of December 2007 resulted in only 6% of games having a line move of 2 points or more. RJ Bell of Pregame.com said: “Donaghy and Foster’s games had big line moves over double as often as a random sample of NBA games.”
In prior reporting widely carried by the national media, RJ Bell of Pregame.com uncovered that big-money bettors won 15 straight lopsidedly bet games refereed by Tim Donaghy during the 2006-2007 season.
Inside the numbers of this study: Teams bet in a disproportionate fashion typically win only around 50% against the Las Vegas line. Wins and losses determined against the opening number. The time frame considered: Opening Day 2006 through March 31, 2007.
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RJ Bell, president of http://Pregame.com, has been featured on CBS News with Katie Couric, ABC News with Charles Gibson, Nightline, Sportscenter, Outside the Lines (ESPN), First Take (ESPN2), ESPN.com, ESPN National Radio, Yahoo, AOL.com, CNN.com and in Wall Street Journal, USA Today, Associated Press, Sports Illustrated, LA Times, Newsweek.com, Maxim, and Forbes.
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