Victory In The 2014 Senate Elections Is A Few Simple Modifications Away For The Dems or The Republicans

Everyone in the political arena knows that the 2014 Senate Race is imperative for democrats to hold onto their majority and for republicans to steal the majority away from the dems. When researching the chances of which party will most likely carry the majority come November 5th, 2014, this writer decided to dig deep, gather varying strategists’ opinions and then confer with Behavioral Economist, Kerrin Hopkins of the Hopkins Consultant Group, who counts current candidates, nine billionaires and many Fortune 100 corporations as valued clients, for her opinion on the upcoming senate elections.

James Hohmann of politico.com states “Republicans have their best shot in years at taking back the Senate in 2014, but a lot has to break their way. They have to pick up just six seats and defend 14, unlike Democrats who have to defend 21 seats.”

CNN currently calculates that “a total of 9 Democratic seats up this year are at risk: Alaska, Arkansas, Colorado, Iowa, Louisiana, Michigan, New Hampshire, North Carolina and West Virginia. Two more Democratic seats — in Montana and South Dakota — are already virtually conceded to the GOP.”
 
So let us evaluate these most important races, through the eyes of established Political Analysts and Profiling Economist Kerrin Hopkins. 

ALASKA
First-term Democratic Sen. Mark Begich faces Republican Dan Sullivan. Based on her proprietary algorithm, Hopkins says “If things stay the way they are, Dan Sullivan, will win unless Mark Begich comes up with a better ad campaign and Sullivan strategists don’t figure out how to attack Begich’s blatant weaknesses.”

ARKANSAS
Libertarian Nathan LaFrance’ entry in the race could be a spoiler for both democratic & republican candidates. According to Hopkins, “either one of these candidates can eliminate LaFrance, if they figure out his extremely obvious Achilles heal.” Given current conditions and the elimination of LaFrance, Hopkins’ analysis shows Tom Cotton ultimately winning the senate race against incumbent Mark Pryor.

COLORADO
A Quinnipiac Poll released Thursday has Republican Cory Gardner ahead of Democratic incumbent Mark Udall by 48-40. Based on all of Hopkins’ research, this is not an accurate poll and if everything stays the same, Udall will absolutely win this tight race for U.S. Senate unless one or both of these candidates change their strategies. Republicans need to pour more money into this race, which is ultimately winnable for them.
 
IOWA
According to The Des Moines Register “the race between Bruce Braley and Joni Ernst is closer to 50-50 than any other U.S. Senate race in the country.”

The University of Minnesota’s Smart Politics non-partisan political news site suggests “the Iowa seat has the greatest probability of switching party control.”

Braley is showing an ad which doesn’t focus on him. His strategists have decided not to pitch Braley’s personality and “have diverted to featuring other people in his ads.” Hopkins says, this is a smart move, and is one of her 5 key strategic moves she would have made him do, if she consulted him and if he wants to see a “W” in November.

A Republican operative said that Braley has implied in two separate ads, something he did led to some direct result; but it actually didn’t. Behavioral Economist Hopkins says that these mis-representations are common characteristics for a person named Bruce Braley and she says to expect more of the same before election day unless he gets smarter political advisors in his camp.

Based on her analysis, Ernst has a much easier route to victory. “If Braley doesn’t get smart, precise, campaign counsel from a professional political strategist, he loses. If Ernst implements 3 simple strategic tweeks to her campaign, the senate is hers for the taking. She will absolutely win this race.”

LOUISIANA
Democratic Sen. Mary Landrieu has never won with more than 52 percent of the vote.

Because there is no primary in Louisiana, Republican Bill Cassidy must fend off a challenger from his right; tea party Col. Rob Maness. According to Hopkins, “Rob will have charm & if he knew how to minimize the negative aspect of his last name, and had a better political team, he could win the entire race.” Political analysts say, “if Cassidy can keep Landrieu under 50 percent, then there will be a December runoff.”   
     
Brian Walsh, a Republican adviser in Senate races says ”I don’t think there’s any chance we don’t go into a runoff in Louisiana" he offered that “A major GOP campaign group has reserved $4 million in Louisiana TV air time after Nov. 4, anticipating battling Landrieu through Dec. 6.”

Hopkins says “There’s no reason to anticipate the worst. It’s Cassidy’s election to lose. How he doesn’t capitalize on this, is beyond me.” “Cassidy will absolutely win, his team  just has to neutralize Landrieu’s 4 points of value.” Hopkins then explained; “if democrats want to win, they need to do the opposite. They need to recognize and emphasize Landrieu’s 4 points of value in her speeches and ad campaigns and translate this information into a senate win.”

MICHIGAN
Fivethirtyeight.com gives the Michigan Democratic senate nominee a greater than 80 percent chance of winning in Michigan. Jacqueline Klimas of the Washington Times, shows Democrat Gary Peters up from 3 to 7 percentage points over Republican Terri Lynn Land in the Michigan senate race.

Hopkins suggests “if Land accepts her vulnerability and capitalizes on her gift for gab and knowledge of finances, she could win. If Gary demonstrates to his constituents that he’s a negotiator, accommodating and would represent Michigan well, he wins. If Land is low in the polls, it’s simply because she clearly is not being managed well and isn’t exposing her strengths properly.”
 
NEW HAMPSHIRE
Fivethirtyeight.com also gives New Hampshire Democrat Jeanne Shaheen a greater than 80 percent chance of winning the senate race over republican Scott Brown. A Public Policy Polling survey in New Hampshire finds Democratic Sen. Jeanne Shaheen up 50 percent to Scott Brown’s 44 percent. To win, Hopkins advises “Shaheen needs to emphasize her work ethic and her achievements that benefited the state. However,  Brown could absolutely win the senate seat if he makes as many personal appearances as humanly possible between now and election day and alters his tv ads.”

NORTH CAROLINA
North Carolina Republican challenger Thom Tillis is running against incumbent Kay Hagan. Upon evaluation, Hopkins states “Unless Hagan gets a better campaign manager, who has a more comprehensive knowledge of voter behavior formulas, Tillis wins this race.”

WEST VIRGINIA
When evaluating the West Virginia race between republican Shelley Moore Capito and democratic candidate Natalie Tennant; Hopkins states “as things stand ‘as is’ without a true strategy intervention, I guarantee Tennant spends more money on her campaign, but Capito wins.”  

MONTANA
Freshman Republican Steve Daines is the front-runner in the senate race against democrat John Walsh. Supposedly, if you believe local republicans; Daines will win - but according to Hopkins, this race is much closer than pundits will suggest. “This race can go either way, and if Daines doesn’t apply a smarter strategy he will lose & this race will prove to be a huge democratic victory.”

SOUTH DAKOTA
Republicans wholeheartedly believe Mike Rounds will easily win the senate seat vacated by a Democrat.

Hopkins has no idea why Republicans are so enthusiastic. There’s an “Independent” candidate in the mix who will most likely take votes from Rounds and there will be a newly found democratic affection for liberal Rick Weiland once democrats realize this is a race that could possibly add a democrat to the senate.  Expect a lot more money to flow to this race.

MOST EXPENSIVE SENATE RACES
This writer finds it fascinating by the fact that the Senate Races highlighted by Politico.com and CNN are not the same as the races with the most money spent by candidates trying to win their seat. How could this be? This writer thinks possibly there is some manipulation by the media to take attention off of the most important senate races. When you follow the money – this will always lead you to the races that truly are the most significant senate races in the country. So here they are.
 
KENTUCKY
Kentucky Senate candidates thus far have spent over $40 million. Republican Mitch McConnell has a consistent lead over Democrat Alison Lundergan Grimes, and a newly released Ipsos Poll gives McConnell a 46 percent to 42 percent lead. Frankly, unless Grimes gets a better campaign team, McConnell will win this.
 
MINNESOTA
The 2nd most expensive 2014 senatorial race thus far, over $31 million, has been spent in Minnesota. Republican Mike McFadden is facing incumbent Democrat Al Franken.  Supposedly Franken has an 8 point lead in the polls. When presented with these facts, Hopkins paused and said “That poll may be accurate, and nothing against Franken, however this race is easily won for McFadden as long as he’s surrounded by a competent team.”
 
GEORGIA
Over $27.6 million has been spent in the Georgia’s Senate race where GOP David Perdue supposedly has a modest lead over Democrat Michelle Nunn in the race to succeed a retiring Republican.

But there’s a Libertarian on the ballot, who might win enough votes to keep Perdue and Nunn from reaching 50 percent. That would trigger a runoff Jan. 6, three days after the new Congress is scheduled to start.

The potential spoiler in the Georgia senate race is Amanda Swafford – a libertarian candidate. Based upon analysis, Hopkins says “Swafford could be dismissed in one quick week of discriminating press once Perdue figures out what to effectively say. Nunn on the other hand, wants to keep Swafford as a viable candidate in order that Swafford takes votes away from Perdue. So anything negative in the press you see about Swafford, will not be from Nunn’s political camp.”

An associate to the Hopkins Consulting Group, Megan Bedalis, writes on political trends in the United States. She can be reached at megan.bedalis@yahoo.com. 

Kerrin Hopkins is a Behavioral Economist who consults politicians on 5 continents on how to win their campaign utilizing her “The Science Behind Politics” strategy. Hopkins can be reached at Hopkins.kerri@gmail.com
 

Contact Information

Kerrin Hopkins

Behavioral Economist

Hopkins Consultant Group

info@thesciencebehindpolitics.com