2009 Sales Volume in Kern County Poised to Push Past 2008 Levels

As fewer and fewer actively selling projects dot the landscape of the Kern County new-home market, sales volume continues to increase. Net sales volume has increased for the third consecutive quarter. This current increase represents a 54 percent gain over last quarter. Multiple projects are contributing to the volume increase with 15 of the 68 experiencing a sales rate above four per month, compared with just six projects last quarter. Robert Martinez, Director of Research at MarketPointe™ Realty Advisors, Inc., doesn’t expect a rapid return to the 1,000-unit per quarter volume levels of 2005, “but believes it is possible that net sales volume in 2009 will exceed the 1,200 net sales posted in 2008.”

The most likely force behind the sales volume increase is the continued price reductions seen throughout the region. As affordability has returned, so have the buyers. Weighted average price in the region fell for the second consecutive quarter, dropping three percent from last quarter. The weighted average home size has also dropped this quarter to an average of 1,905 square feet, a two percent decrease. These price and size decreases have pushed the detached value ratio down 1 percent to approximately $116 per square foot, the lowest on record. According to ResidentialTrends™ Housing Market Overview this per square foot decline, a more accurate measure of home value than price alone, marks the seventh decline in the last eight quarters.

Inventory in the 68 actively selling detached projects, three of which were audited for the first time this quarter, decreased for the fifth consecutive quarter. This quarter’s three percent decline brought the total supply number to the lowest level since the third quarter of 2006. Of 7,027 total units of detached inventory this quarter, more than 93 percent constitute units within unreleased future phases of existing developments. Inventory that represents more immediately available supply stands at 472 units, a 15 percent decline from last quarter. Martinez further states that together, both unsold inventory and inventory that has not yet been made available to the marketplace represent nearly seven years of total supply. However, the inventory that has been made available and remains unsold represents nearly six months of supply.

MarketPointe™ Realty Advisors, Inc. provides new housing market statistics throughout California via its ResidentialTrends™ new-home database and its LandTracker™ proposed development database, as well as site specific, tailored housing market research and consulting services. Comprehensive “Housing Market Overviews” providing new home sales, pricing, housing inventory trends, future housing supply, and new and leading developments are available for regions across California by going to www.marketpointe.com/landing. Phone San Diego at 619-233-3781, Orange County at 714-528-2554 or Sacramento at 916-710-1396; url:www.marketpointe.com.

Contact Information

Robert D. Martinez

Director of Research

MarketPointe Realty Advisors

Contact via E-mail